Energy Resilience of NTB Amid the Shadow of Global Crisis

By Niken Arumdati, ST, M.Sc

Amid growing global geopolitical uncertainty, energy has once again asserted its position as a strategic factor shaping economic and social stability. The conflict in the Middle East can no longer be viewed as merely a regional issue; it carries direct implications for the global energy supply chain, particularly oil and gas. As the risk of fuel distribution disruptions increases, countries, including Indonesia are compelled to confront a fundamental reality: in times of crisis, conventional fossil energy such as coal remains the backbone of energy resilience.

At the same time, however, domestic coal supply is not entirely stable. Pressure arises from a combination of production control policies, reduced from around 790 million tons to 600 million tons, changes in the RKAB mechanism, which is now determined annually, and the imbalance between domestic needs and more attractive export incentives. These conditions have begun to affect the fulfillment of the Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) for power plants, in some cases disrupting supply and potentially undermining the reliability of the national electricity system.

Amid rising global demand and geopolitical uncertainty that may disrupt other energy supplies, Indonesia’s reliance on coal is, paradoxically, increasing. This underscores a key issue: the challenge lies not merely in coal availability, but in the governance of distribution and the assurance of domestic supply. This situation serves as a critical warning, given that the national energy system still heavily depends on coal-fired power plants as the primary source of electricity generation.

In a worst-case scenario, such as an escalation of conflict in the Middle East that significantly disrupts global oil distribution, Indonesia would face substantial pressure on fuel supply. Dependence on oil imports makes the national energy system vulnerable to price volatility and logistical disruptions. Under such conditions, coal becomes the most realistic fallback energy source.

Not only are domestic reserves relatively abundant, but Indonesia’s power generation infrastructure is already built around coal. Past crises have shown that even disruptions in coal supply alone can have widespread impacts, forcing the government to take drastic measures such as export bans to secure domestic needs. In this context, when fuel supply is disrupted, coal is no longer an option, it becomes a necessity.

Baca juga: NTB Rich in Critical Mineral Potential for Renewable Energy Development

For the Province of West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), these dynamics present a more complex set of implications. NTB is not a coal-producing region, yet it is experiencing rapid growth in energy demand, driven by tourism, smelter industries, and expanding electrification. The electricity systems in Lombok and Sumbawa remain heavily dependent on coal-fired power plants, including PLTU Jeranjang (3×25 MW), PLTU Sambelia (2×25 MW/IPP), and smaller coal-based units in West Sumbawa of around 2×7 MW. This dependence is compounded by the absence of local fossil energy reserves, meaning that all primary energy supplies must be sourced from outside the region.

Meanwhile, although NTB has set an ambitious target of achieving Net Zero Emissions by 2050, the contribution of renewable energy in the regional energy mix currently stands at around 25.07 percent, equivalent to approximately 67.3 MW of installed capacity. This indicates that the energy transition is still in its early stages and not yet sufficient to replace fossil fuels in the short term.

Despite these vulnerabilities, NTB also holds significant strategic opportunities. Its abundant potential in solar, wind, and geothermal energy provides a strong foundation for accelerating energy diversification. With the right approach, NTB could become a model region that not only relies on coal as a buffer but also successfully builds a more diverse and sustainable energy system.

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This is where the paradox of energy transition becomes evident. On one hand, renewable energy is strongly promoted as a long-term solution to reduce emissions and dependence on fossil fuels, a direction that is conceptually unquestionable. On the other hand, energy crises consistently remind us that transition cannot overlook reliability. In emergency situations, energy systems require sources that are stable, predictable, and available at scale, a role that coal still fulfills today. This is the dilemma faced by many countries, including Indonesia: balancing the push toward clean energy with the need to maintain system stability in the short term.

In facing this reality, policy direction becomes crucial. Ensuring the reliability of national coal supply must remain a priority, particularly through effective implementation of the DMO, supported by strong coordination between central and regional governments as well as key stakeholders such as PLN. At the same time, strengthening energy reserves through shared utilization of privately owned storage facilities for fuel and gas buffer stocks is a strategic step in anticipating potential crises. To enable this, the central government needs to promptly issue implementing regulations that provide technical clarity and governance certainty.

For NTB, accelerating renewable energy development based on local potential must be prioritized, not only as part of the energy transition agenda, but also as a strategy to strengthen regional energy resilience. Strengthening infrastructure and interconnection, including the Bali–NTB–NTT supergrid project, agreed upon by the governors of the respective regions has become an urgent necessity to enhance system flexibility and reinforce integrated regional energy resilience. Beyond that, energy must be positioned as an integral component of regional development policy, not merely as a technical sector, but as a fundamental pillar of economic growth and investment.

Ultimately, the global energy crisis serves as a reminder that energy resilience is not solely determined by resource availability, but by the readiness of systems to withstand disruptions. In normal conditions, energy transition is a rational choice. However, in times of crisis, energy systems will revert to the most reliable sources, and for now, that still means coal.

For NTB, the key challenge lies in ensuring that short-term dependence on coal does not hinder the long-term vision of clean energy. On the contrary, this dynamic should be seen as momentum to accelerate transformation, from mere energy resilience toward a more robust and independent energy sovereignty in the face of global uncertainty.