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NTB Economy Rising: Now Time to Ensure Equitable Growth
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By: Giri Arnawa
*Professional worker and sustainable agrifood consultant
West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) is currently experiencing a critical momentum. The Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) in 2025 indicates significant improvements across various key development indicators: poverty reduction, relative low inequality, controlled unemployment, and substantial economic growth.
However, despite these achievements, there are still structural challenges that must be addressed to ensure NTB’s true progress towards the vision of “Globally Prosperous NTB.”
As emphasized by the Governor of NTB on numerous occasions, “NTB’s development should not be limited to numerical growth. Our objective is to achieve welfare that is tangible, equitable, and sustainable.”
Poverty in NTB
BPS data reveals that the percentage of impoverished individuals in NTB in September 2025 was 11.38 persen, a decrease of 0.40 percentage points compared to March 2025. In absolute terms, the number of impoverished individuals decreased to approximately 637,000. This is an achievement that warrants recognition.
Nevertheless, this figure indicates that NTB’s poverty remains at a double-digit level, characterized by a highly sensitive structure to food price fluctuations. Approximately three-quarters of NTB’s poverty line is attributed to the food component, particularly rice and animal protein. This implies that poverty in NTB is not solely a result of insufficient social assistance, but is intricately linked to household income and food security.
In response to this, the Governor of NTB emphasized, “Poverty alleviation in NTB must commence with the strengthening of the people’s economy, particularly that of farmers and village communities. Food security serves as the fundamental cornerstone of welfare.”
Maintaining the quality of life
In September 2025, NTB’s Gini Ratio was recorded at 0.364, falling within the low inequality category as per World Bank standards. The expenditure distribution of the bottom 40 percent group reached 19.23 percent, indicating a relatively maintained level of equity.
Nevertheless, inequality persists in urban areas, surpassing that in rural areas. This suggests that the benefits of economic growth in urban centers have not fully reached low-income community groups.
As directed by the Governor of NTB, “Economic growth must be accompanied by equity. No region or community group should be left behind in the development process.”
Inclusivity challenges persist in NTB
In the fourth quarter of 2025, NTB’s economy experienced a 12.49 % annual growth, primarily driven by the processing industry and exports. This growth demonstrates NTB’s increasing economic competitiveness.
However, sectors that employ the largest workforce, such as agriculture and tourism services, continue to face fluctuations. This disparity highlights a gap between rapidly expanding sectors and those that provide livelihoods for the majority of the community.
Governor Iqbal emphasized the importance of creating quality jobs, stating, “Economic growth must generate quality employment opportunities. Industry and tourism must serve as catalysts for the welfare of local communities.”
While NTB’s Open Unemployment Rate stands at a low 3.05 % , over two-thirds of workers remain in the informal sector, and nearly half are employed part-time.
This situation underscores the need for economic growth to have a comprehensive impact on improving welfare.
The challenge lies not only in job creation but also in ensuring that these jobs are decent, sustainable, and provide a future for the community.
Governor Iqbal further stated, “We do not desire the community to solely engage in hard work, but rather to work decently, productively, and with a sense of purpose.”
Quality tourism
Although tourism in NTB continues to develop, its benefits have not been equally distributed among the communities surrounding the destinations. Without connectivity with farmers, micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), and local labor, tourism risks becoming an economic enclave.
Consequently, the Governor emphasized the direction of NTB’s tourism policy as follows: “NTB tourism must provide added value for local communities. An advanced destination is a destination that contributes to the economic growth of the people surrounding it.”
Convergence as the Key
The 2025 BPS data provides a clear message: NTB is on the right track, but the most significant challenge is achieving growth that is equitable.
Poverty alleviation, food security, and tourism cannot be pursued independently. These three must be integrated into a mutually reinforcing development ecosystem.
As emphasized by the Governor of NTB, “Globally Prosperous NTB can only be achieved if our development is integrated, data-driven, and oriented towards the welfare of the entire community.”
Comprehensive Analysis of NTB 2025 Growth
Dr. Iwan Harsono’s analysis, which underscores the disparity between the 7 percent economic growth target and the 2025 NTB economic realization of 3.22 percent (c-to-c), serves as a crucial reminder of the significance of planning discipline and growth consistency. However, to avoid drawing overly linear conclusions, the 2025 BPS data should be thoroughly examined—across various indicators, sectors, and socio-economic impacts.
3.22 Percent Growth: Slowdown or Transition?
It is true that cumulatively to cumulatively, NTB’s economy in 2025 experienced a growth of 3.22 percent, which is lower than the growth rate of 2024. Nevertheless, the same data also reveals that NTB is undergoing a phase of economic structural transition, not merely a cyclical slowdown.
In Quarter IV-2025, NTB’s economy witnessed a growth of 12.49 percent (y-on-y) and 3.97 percent (q-to-q)—not merely a “momentary spike,” but a reflection of the recovery of the non-mining sector, particularly the processing industry and exports. In the context of a region with an economic structure previously heavily reliant on mining, annual fluctuations are a consequence of transition, not a policy anomaly.
In essence, the 3.22 percent figure does not stand alone but is an integral part of the process of adjusting NTB’s production structure.
Dependence on Capital-Intensive Sectors
Dr. Iwan’s analysis accurately highlights that NTB’s reliance on capital-intensive sectors, such as mining and downstreaming, renders the economy susceptible to vulnerability.
However, it is imperative to emphasize that the 2025 data actually signifies the commencement of a corrective phase in this dependence.
BPS has recorded substantial growth in the following areas namely Processing industry (76.37 percent year-over-year), Household consumption (4.49 percent year-over-year), and Annual financial services, trade, and tourism
This indicates that the growth engine is gradually shifting from mere mining production volume towards the generation of added value and domestic demand. While this transition is not yet optimal, the direction is undoubtedly clear.
Comparison with Bali and NTT
The comparison of NTB with Bali and NTT necessitates methodological caution. Bali operates as a pure service economy centered around tourism, exhibiting relative stability post-pandemic. NTT receives support from government spending and subsistence agriculture, which tends to be stable but characterized by low productivity.
NTB occupies a position between these two namely more industrialized than NTT. However, not yet as deeply entrenched in value-added services as Bali.
Consequently, NTB’s volatility is higher, but its medium-term value-added potential is also greater—provided that the transition is effectively managed.
Social Indicators: Emerging Positive Impact
If the 2025 growth were indeed a “failure,” social indicators should have deteriorated. In contrast, BPS data reveals the opposite:
* Poverty decreased to 11.38 percent (−0.40 points in six months)
* The number of impoverished individuals declined by 21 thousand people (year-on-year)
* The Gini Ratio remains stable at a low level (0.364)
* The TPT (Open Unemployment Rate) is low at 3.05 percent, although work quality continues to pose challenges.
This suggests that the 2025 growth—albeit moderate in aggregate—is more inclusive in its impact compared to previous periods characterized by high capital intensity.
7 Percent Target: Miscalculation or Inappropriate Stage?
The 6.5–7 percent target is worth questioning in terms of timing, but it is not incorrect in terms of direction. This target reflects an acceleration phase after the structural foundation is repaired, not a mechanical annual target.
The lesson of 2025 is not that the target is too high, but rather that:
1. Structural transition takes time,
2. Quality growth is often slower at the beginning,
3. Social indicators need to be placed on par with GRDP (PDRB) indicators.
Policy Implications: Not Lowering the Target, but Locking in Quality
Instead of merely lowering the growth target, the reading of the 2025 data actually points to the need to lock in non-mining growth, accelerate labor-absorbing downstreaming, link tourism with local food and MSMEs, and make indicators of poverty, formal employment, and household consumption the policy compass.
This article has been published in an Indonesian version. See original.
Editor: Ismail Zakaria
